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Digest HTIF October 2023

24.10.2023

In our research note from the beginning of the second half of the year, we were cautious about Q3 expecting high volatility with a downside outcome. And so it happened, despite the good start, the end of the quarter is in the "red zone". The "Magnificent Seven" represented by Apple, Tesla, Google, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon and Microsoft - the former main drivers of growth in the first half of the year - showed a dynamic decline, losing up to 15 percent of the value of their peak quarterly values. As for oil quotations, our forecast was also correct and oil quotations showed impressive growth, which, however, cannot be said about base metals, which showed mixed and rather downward dynamics. Although wheat quotations demonstrated strong upsurge during the quarter, finally they remained near zero values. It was also noticeable that geopolitical tensions in China increased, expressed both in sharp criticism of the PRC leadership from the US and EU authorities and the clearly chosen course of the US to reduce the level of business activity with China and, as a Chinese response, the reduction of the volume of US bonds on the balance sheet of the Bank of China.

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