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Digest HTIF June 2023

29.06.2023

In our late 2022 research note, we were quite optimistic for all of 2023. Our forecast of a halt to the Fed rate hike of about 5 percentage points and a decline in inflationary pressures in the United States to thresholds of 3.5 - 4 percentage points by mid-year are apparently holding true so far. Our estimate of a 15 to 20 per cent recovery of the leading US stock indices thanks to the biggest technology companies, the list of which we provided in the note, was also correct. The market, breaking away from the most negative predictions, was able to focus on economic fundamentals, good reporting of companies in a number of industries, and show good dynamics. We expected problems in the US financial sector throughout 2023, so we limited our presence in this sector for the whole year, which at the end of the first half of the year was also the right decision and it prevented portfolios of securities under our management from showing excessive negative volatility. However, we do not tend to over-dramatize the situation in the U.S. financial market and think that the largest banks will be able to restore their positions by the end of 2023.

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